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Swiatek vs Sabalenka: prediction for the US Open match
On September 9, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will fight for the second final spot in US Open. Polish player has won three latest head-to-head fixtures. Will the World No. 1 player secure another victory? The answer is in our prediction.
Command Analysis
Iga Swiatek
PolandIga Swiatek was not so convincing in pre-Slam tournaments, so there were reasonable concerns about her form before the start of US Open. But the World No. 1 player managed to reach the semi-final of a Grand Slam competition, despite an underwhelming performance.
Iga coasted past first three rounds effortlessly. She beat Paolini, Stephens and Davis without losing a single set. Polish played won each of these matches by at least five games.
A round of 16 match against Niemeier turned out to be a tough one for Swiatek. She managed to come back after losing the first set (2:6, 6:4, 6:0).
In the quarter-final Iga had to face Pegula. Polish player performed poorly - 32 unforced errors, six breaks given and only 50% of points won at first serve. However, the opponent failed to capitalize, so Swiatek took a 3:6, 6:7 victory.
Aryna Sabalenka
BelarusAryna Sabalenka reached the semi-final of US Open for the second time in a row. In the previous season Belarusian player was stopped by Leylah Fernandez at that stage (6:7, 6:4, 4:6).
Aryna was actually close to a defeat in the second round. She was 1:5 down in a second set of a match against Kanepi, but mounted a comeback and didn't let the opponent to convert two match-points (2:6, 7:6, 6:4).
A spirited performance against the Estonian player sparked Sabalenka's winning streak in New York. In next matches she hammered Burel (6:0, 6:2), narrowly beat Collins (3:6, 6:3, 6:2) and Pliskova (6:1, 7:6). In a match against the Czech player Aryna had only three double faults and put up a flawless serving performance.
Trends
Ставка1st set: total under 8,5
This bet played in each of four latest head-to-head matches
СтавкаSets performance: 2>1
This bet played in three latest matches of Swiatek
СтавкаTiebreak: no
No tiebreaks were played in any of four latest head-to-head matches
Tip and bets
Opponents had three head-to-head matches in 2022, all of them were won by the Polish player. Iga managed to get victories on hard and clay surfaces. Swiatek is a clear favourite tonight, despite an underwhelming performance in the quarter-final.
Sabalenka put up a great serving performance in a match against Pliskova. But Swiatek is a much better receiver than the Czech player. Aryna will have to face a tough opponent. We think that Iga will be able to beat the Belarusian player for a fourth time in a season.
Our prediction - Swiatek to win with a handicap of (-2,5) games
Bookmakers are expecting a tightly contested match here. But in each of three latest head-to-head matches no more than 17 games were played. We offer to place a bet on total under.
Our second bet is on total under 22 games
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