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Atletico Madrid vs Valencia: Prediction and Betting Odds 6.40
Atletico will play in the fifth round of the Primera championship at their home stadium Metropolitano on September 15 against Valencia. Last season, the rivals exchanged home victories. Will the visitors be able to put up a fight in Madrid and what are the prospects for the White-Reds? Our experts have assessed the teams' chances and prepared the best bets for the game. The site's star expert Igor Semshov has prepared his own betting tip for this duel
Command Analysis
Atletico Madrid
SpainCurrent form
Atletico spent the international break as one of five La Liga teams unbeaten after four games, but things were not going so smoothly for Diego Simeone's men. The Mattress Makers, who spent big on summer recruitment, needed an injury-time goal to beat Athletic before the break, while they were also unable to beat newly promoted Espanyol on Matchday 3 (0-0).
The tie took place at the Metropolitano, a venue that has lost its reputation as an impenetrable fortress. https://en.atleticodemadrid.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Indians have failed to win two of their last three home league games, the same number of misses as in the previous 27. With a UEFA Champions League match against RB Leipzig coming up in midweek, Simeone will be looking to build momentum for the players against the Oranje.
Disqualifications and injuries
Barrios (muscle injury) and Lemar (injury) out of the game
Interesting trends for betting
- Atletico Madrid have scored at least twice in their last five home matches.
Atletico spent a fortune to strengthen the squad and the fans are not against rejoicing at these acquisitions. In the last match, it was hard to call the game attractive at all.
- Angel Correa, who scored the winning goal against Atletico, could be out of action
Only against Celta Vigo (six) has he scored more goals in his career than against Valencia (five), with four of those strikes coming in home games.
- Atletico have not conceded a goal in their last three La Liga games
There is a chance to break the record, because since December 2020 they have not managed to play four matches in a row without a clean sheet.
Estimated line-up : Moldovan – Azpilitueta, Normand, Witsel, Lino – Koke, de Paul, Llorente, Riquelmy – Griezmann, Sorloth.
Valencia
SpainCurrent form
If recent history is anything to go by, this game should work as the Bats have struggled against the capital in recent times. Valencia have failed to win any of their last 13 league visits to Atletico, their second-longest run in history. Seven of those encounters have taken place at the Metropolitano, with the Oranje conceding multiple goals on five occasions. Valencia are stuck at the bottom of the La Liga table after a winless start to the campaign and, worryingly, have not won their last 11 league games – their worst run since a 12-game run in 2015/16 under Gary Neville. All of which makes this a nightmare game for Ruben Baraja, who will be looking to turn his side’s fortunes around.
Disqualifications and injuries
Diakhaby (knee injury), Domenech (muscle injury), Gaja (muscle injury), Mir (calf injury) and Perez (injury) will not be able to play today.
Interesting trends for betting
- Giorgi Mamardashvili has not kept a clean sheet in his last seven La Liga matches.
The goalkeeper is half the team and there is hope for the Georgian legionnaire, who is eager to give brilliant matches. Baraja lets this footballer play and today he may bear all the responsibility for the result.
- Valencia have gone eleven league games without a win
The Bats have had an indecent streak, having confidently beaten the Indians 3-0 at home last season. There is also hope that the hosts might underestimate their opponent, which will play a cruel joke on them.
Estimated lineup : Mamardashvili – Vasquez, Tarrega, Garciorovsky, Correa – Almeida, Guillaumont, Pepelu, Tejon – Barry, Perez.
Trends
Bet Exact score 1:2
Four of the last six head-to-head matches have seen this score
6.50Bet Goals in both halves – no
In 3 of Valencia's last 5 matches, goals were scored in the same half
1.82Bet Corners: Total Under 9.5
In 3 of the last 5 matches of the hosts such a bet took place
1.88Bet Number 1 in the score
In three of the last six matches this bet has played out
1.65Tip and bets
We believe that there is no point in expecting an abundance of attacks and scoring chances – the visitors will close in defense and wait for their chance near the gates of the capital club. In case of success, Madrid will try to keep the players before the start of the Champions League, and it is unlikely that the "mattress makers" will run forward at breakneck speed from the first seconds. We assume that today everything will be decided by 1-2 mistakes.
Our prediction is total under 2.5 goals and we bet on it for 1.98
Bet on the outcome
Today we are not on the side of the experienced Diego Simeone, who is able to set his team up for a duel with this principal rival, but something is not going well in these mechanisms. The last games are alarming and today we do not expect a rout of the guests. Moreover, we do not exclude that something will go wrong and the "orange" will finally be able to break the unpleasant series.
Betting Tip - Asian handicap (0) for Valencia and we bet on it with odds of 6.40
Betting on yellow cards
This fight will most likely not be an exception and may lead to a lot of violations, some of which may be severely condemned by the referee. Moreover, in two of the last four fights, the referee did not show less than four yellow cards.
Betting Tip - total yellow cards over four. This option can be found for 1.71
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