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Italy vs Belgium: Predictions and Bets at Odds of 2.40
The Italian national team kicked off their Nations League campaign with two victories, showcasing a strong offensive game compared to their lackluster performance at the recent European Championship. Meanwhile, Belgium struggled in their last match against France, revealing several issues within their squad. Will Luciano Spalletti's team secure a third consecutive victory on October 10 in Rome? Our prediction has the answer. Additionally, renowned experts Alexander Mostovoy and Elvin Kerimov share their betting insights for the match.
Command Analysis
Italy
ItalyCurrent Form
In the Nations League, Italy's national team kicked off with two victories. They made a strong statement in their first match away against France, where despite conceding an early goal, the Italians dominated the game, showcasing diverse and swift offensive play, ultimately winning 3-1. In their subsequent match, they secured a solid win against Israel, finishing 2-1.
After two rounds, the Squadra Azzurra leads their group with six points. It's important to note that Luciano Spalletti is building a new team focused on attacking strategies. The tactical setup features three defenders and a highly mobile midfield capable of breaking through opposition defenses, as seen in their match against Israel. However, defensive issues persist, as they have conceded goals in both matches played.
Notably, for the upcoming matches in October, Spalletti has called up attacking midfielder Daniel Maldini from Monza. He becomes the third member of his illustrious football family to represent the national team, following in the footsteps of his father Paolo and grandfather Cesare.
Suspensions and Injuries
Due to injuries, Scamacca, Barella, Kean, and Udogie will not play today.
Interesting Betting Trends
- In 9 of their last 10 home matches in the Nations League, Italy has not lost in regulation time
- In three of their last five matches, Italy has finished the first half in a draw
- At home in the Nations League, Italy has not conceded more than one goal in regulation time in 9 of their last 10 matches
Projected Lineup: Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori – Cambiaso, Frattesi, Ricci, Tonali, Dimarco – Pellegrini – Retegui.
Belgium
BelgiumCurrent Form
After two rounds in the Nations League, Belgium's national team has earned three points, which is a predictable outcome. They started strong with a victory over Israel (3-1) but then suffered a defeat against France away with a score of 0-2. The match featured an open style of play, and while the Belgians created chances, they failed to find the net.
With three points, Domenico Tedesco's side sits in third place after two games. Relegation is unlikely, considering Israel is in the group, but competing with Italy and France for the top two spots will be a challenge.
The situation with players has certainly drawn attention. Thibaut Courtois did not participate in the European Championship and will also be absent this time. There are tense relations with coach Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, who will also miss the match. Replacing Kevin will be tough, and Belgium will likely fall short in midfield against their upcoming opponent in all key metrics.
Disqualifications and Injuries
De Bruyne, Courtois, and Lukaku will not play today in Rome.
Interesting Betting Trends
- Belgium has not won four out of their last five matches in the Nations League.
- In their last five away games in the Nations League, Belgium has not scored more than one goal.
- In three out of the last four matches, the teams were tied at halftime.
Projected Lineup: Castels – Castagne, Faes, Debast, Theate – Mangala, Tielemans – Lukebakio, De Ketelaere, Doku – Openda.
Trends
Bet Goals in both halves - Yes
In the last three matches, Italy scored in both halves
1.74Bet Italy to score in the second half
Italy scored in the second half in three out of the last four matches
1.59Bet Exact Score 2:1
Italy secured two of their last three victories with this scoreline
8.60Bet 1st Half: Draw
This bet has been successful in three of the last five matches featuring both the home and away teams
2.26Tip and bets
It is well-deserved that the Italian team is favored in the sports betting lines. Luciano Spalletti is crafting a new squad, and their progress is evident. The attack is dynamic and they transition quickly into offensive plays. In midfield, we believe the hosts will have a significant advantage. Belgium is facing challenges off the field, with key players unavailable and no suitable replacement for Kevin De Bruyne. Additionally, the Belgian team has not won in four of their last five away matches in the Nations League.
Our prediction is an Italy victory with odds of 1.98
Bet on Total Goals
Given that the Italian national team is currently playing more aggressively in attack, it is worth considering the likelihood of a total exceeding the expected goals in this match. In their previous two home games, we witnessed open and high-scoring play with numerous goal-scoring opportunities, and it's unlikely that today's match will be any different.
The secondary bet is on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03
Bet on Exact Score Margin
In their two victories in the Nations League, the Italians did not achieve overwhelming wins over their opponents. Now they face Belgium, where the skill disparity is minimal. We predict that the home team will win by a margin of one to two goals.
Prediction – Italy to win by a margin of one to two goals at odds of 2.40
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