Liontips
“Toronto” – “Edmonton”: forecast for the NHL match
The NHL championship will feature a match between Toronto and Edmonton on November 17. The Leafs have won four of their previous five matches, but the Oilers are currently on a three-game winning streak. Previous head-to-head meetings between the clubs in Toronto have often been in favor of the home team. What is the best bet on this matchup? Find out from our forecast
Command Analysis
Toronto Maple Leafs
CanadaCurrent form
Toronto is in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and has earned 22 points in total. The team has been doing well lately, even though they have been playing without Auston Matthews and have been playing without Max Pacioretty in the last two games. The Leafs have recently had a successful series of three victories at home, after which they still lost to Ottawa (0:3). They went away in a bad mood, but were able to prove their superiority in a tough fight against Washington with a score of 4:3 in overtime.
In most cases, Craig Berube team was distinguished by excellent scoring and usually scored at least three or four goals. If the Leafs' game is not particularly good in the 5x4 format, then in terms of playing in the minority, the club remains one of the best in the league and currently ranks sixth in this indicator, with 84.9% of the extra man conversion rate. It should be emphasized that Toronto most successful performance is the second period, during which it scores much more than in other periods, and greatly takes advantage of the far benches.
It should be noted that Toronto will be without Auston Matthews, one of the team leading scorers, for an indefinite period of time, but the team has already managed to adapt to this and restructure its game. Plus, other forwards like Mitchell Marner, who has already scored 22 points in the goal+pass system, have also improved significantly.
Disqualifications and injuries
Matthews, Mermis, Pacioretty, Jarnkrok and Klingberg will not participate in the match due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- Toronto is averaging 30 shots on goal
The Leafs play great in attack and try to make as many shots on the opponent goal as possible
- Statistically, the Leafs are receiving 9.06 penalty minutes.
Toronto averages at least four to five penalties per game
Edmonton Oilers
CanadaCurrent form
Edmonton is in seventh place in the Western Conference and has 19 points. The team can’t find stability and develop a long winning streak, but now it is in its best shape in the last month and is on a streak of three victories. Note that earlier on the road, the Oilers literally crushed Vancouver (7:3), and already on home ice they dealt with the Islanders (4:3 OT) and Nashville (3:2 OT). Let’s emphasize that Chris Knobloch’s team is used to playing on opposite courses, so usually at least three pucks end up in his net, but he also scores a lot in response.
However, the play in unequal compositions leaves much to be desired. Thus, in the play of the Oilers today they have 15.9% of the power play, and in the play of the penalty kill they occupy the last place in the league and have 62.8% of the neutralization of the opponent power play. And this must be taken into account what powerful players play in attack. In fact, Edmonton has one of the most powerful brigades of the power play in the league, but it uses its numerical advantage very mediocrely.
But in equal numbers, Chris Knobloch team creates many dangerous moments and takes advantage of them well, constantly creating free space for themselves and cutting through the opponent defense with long passes under the blue line.
Disqualifications and injuries
Kane and Arvidsson will not take part in the match due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- Edmonton gets seven minutes of penalty time per game
The Oilers show pretty good discipline and are rarely sent off more than three times per game
- The Oilers average 33 shots on target
The Oilers continue to play very actively in the offensive zone and give the opposing goalie a huge amount of work
Trends
Bet 1st period: total over 1.5 goals
In four out of five matches between the clubs, the first period was productive
1.75Bet 2nd period: home team win
In three out of five matches, the hosts achieved victory in the second period
2.85Tip and bets
We think that Toronto will be able to impose a tough fight on the Oilers in this confrontation and fight for two points. The Leafs are currently in pretty good shape and have finished most of the matches in their favor. Plus, the Oilers have not beaten the Leafs on the road for a long time, especially in regulation time. The last time this happened was back in 2021. We think that even without Matthews, Craig Berube team will give it their all and will not allow themselves to be beaten in this derby.
Prediction - Toronto win with handicap (0) for 2.20
Bet on individual total
Toronto is a great offensive team and usually scores at least three goals, especially when playing at home. In the last four games, the team has scored three times. Edmonton is known to be a mediocre defensive team and has allowed at least three goals in four of the last five games. In addition, the visitors are weak when shorthanded.
We bet on Toronto individual total over 2.5 goals for 1.70
Total Bet
Many meetings between the clubs are spectacular and involve a fair number of goals. Toronto is used to playing open hockey, and Edmonton also only plays on the counter and does not watch its game in defense. The last match between the teams ended with nine goals scored. It is quite possible that this time the game will be bright and will take place without a neutral zone.
We take the total over 5.5 pucks with a coefficient of 1.65
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