Liontips
"Sturm" - "Girona": forecast and bets with odds of 3.75
The fifth round of the general stage of the Champions League will feature the Austrian Sturm and the Spanish Primera Girona. The opponents are among the outsiders of the tournament and are clearly not yet able to compete with the best clubs in Europe. The visitors managed to win one victory in four matches, and the hosts have zero points so far. Will the Austrian champion finally be able to open their account of victories in the Champions League on November 27? Which of the opponents will be stronger in this match? The answer is in our forecast.
Command Analysis
Sturm Graz
AustriaCurrent form
https://sksturm.at/en target=_blank rel=noopener>Sturm fans and players will remember last season for a long time. The club from Graz finally managed to dethrone Red Bull Salzburg and win the long-awaited championship - the first since 2011! Before that, the team finished in the top three for three years in a row, but only now managed to take the championship title. The current season in the domestic championship is also going well for Jurgen Saumel charges. The hosts are in first place and five points ahead of their closest pursuers, having scored 36 goals in 14 matches. In the last round, they managed to beat Austria Klagenfurt with a humiliating score of 7:0.
At the same time, the team is not strong enough to successfully play in the Champions League. Thanks to the increased status of the Austrian Bundesliga, Sturm got into the main stage of the championship, bypassing the qualifying rounds. The tournament began for the hosts with an offensive away defeat to Brest (1:2) with Lavallee being sent off at the end of the match. Then the "blacks" played two matches in Klagenfurt, where they also failed to score points, although the opponents were not the most formidable - Brugge (0:1) and Sporting Lisbon (0:2).
Finally, in the fourth round, the Austrian champion managed to impose competition on Borussia Dortmund, but still conceded in the 85th minute and was again forced to return home empty-handed. It is noticeable that the team is doing quite well in defense and has not suffered a single crushing defeat, but still, at this level, it is extremely difficult to play all 90 minutes without a single mistake.
Disqualifications and injuries
Aleksandar Borkovic and Jon Gorenc-Stankovic will miss the match due to injuries. Amadi Camara appearance on the field is questionable.
Interesting trends for betting
- The team has scored only one goal in four matches in the Champions League
- The hosts have suffered only one defeat in their last six matches.
- In the Champions League, the Austrian club has not conceded more than two goals in a match
Estimated lineup: Scherpen - Johnston, Aivu, Lavale, Gazibegovic - Yalkue, Chukvuani, Kiteishvili - Bierit, Boving, Yatta
Girona
SpainCurrent form
Girona had a fantastic last season, finishing third in the Spanish Primera and achieving the best result in the club history. This season was the Catalan team debut in European competitions, so most of the visiting players do not have experience of playing at such a high level.
This season in La Liga has not been as successful for the Catalans as the previous one, but they have managed to improve the situation recently. The team has won three victories in a row in the last rounds, beating Leganes (4:3), Getafe (1:0) and Espanyol (4:1). Thanks to these successes, Michel charges have moved up to seventh place and are now only one point behind Osasuna, who are closing out the top six. The gap to fifth-placed Athletic is only two points.
The results in the Champions League, as expected, are not the most impressive. In the first round, https://www.gironafc.cat/en target=_blank rel=noopener>Girona managed to give PSG a decent fight at the Parc des Princes and conceded the only goal of the match only in the 90th minute - goalkeeper Gassaniga could not cope with the pressure. Then, on their home field, the Catalans played a real thriller with Feyenoord - five goals scored, two missed penalties, a goal cancelled due to offside, two own goals, this match had it all! Unfortunately, the visitors were luckier - Girona lost with a score of 2:3. Only after that, the team won its first victory, beating Bratislava Slovan on its home field (2:0). In the fourth round, the Gironistas suffered another defeat - they were unable to fight back PSV on the road (0:4).
Disqualifications and injuries
Ricard Artero, Yangel Herrera, Antonino Hastin and Porto will miss the match due to injuries. Arnaud Martinez is serving a suspension.
Interesting trends for betting
- The team has won four of its last five matches.
- The visitors have not drawn in their last ten matches.
- Catalans have lost three of four matches in the Champions League
Probable lineup: Gassaniga - Blind, Krejciy, Lopez, Frances - Clois Hoya, van de Beek, Romeu - Gil, Miovski, Gutierrez Ortiga
Trends
Bet Exact score 0:1
The hosts have suffered two of their last three Champions League defeats by that scoreline
9.00Bet At least one team will not score
This bet has played in 6 of the last 8 away matches
2.20Bet Number 1 in the final score
This pattern has worked in five of Sturm last six matches
1.65Bet: Sturm wins on fouls
Girona have lost their last four matches on fouls
1.65Tip and bets
We consider the visitors to be the favourites of the upcoming match. Girona plays in a more competitive league and has managed to gain excellent form, winning three matches in a row in the championship. The crushing defeat to PSV in the previous round of the Champions League will clearly make Michel charges take the match with Sturm more seriously, because for the Catalans this is one of the few chances to get three points, because then they will have to play Liverpool, Milan and Arsenal. We believe that the Primera representative will take advantage of their class advantage.
Our prediction is Girona victory at 2.03
Bet on total
In the Champions League matches, the hosts can only count on playing defensively, since the Austrians don't have many chances to beat stronger opponents in attack. Most likely, the underdog will focus on playing near its own goal this time. It not that easy to break through Sturm defense, so don't expect a high-scoring match.
Our prediction is total under three goals for 1.70
Bet on the exact difference in the score
"Sturm" fights to the end in every match and does not allow the opponents to win big. Even the formidable PSG managed to break the resistance of the Austrians only towards the end of the match, scoring the only goal. Surely, "Girona" will not have an easy walk here either. We think that the Catalans will win with a minimal difference in the score.
Our prediction is Girona to win by one goal at 3.75
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