Liontips
Sabalenka - Badosa: betting tip for the Australian Open match
In the first semi-final of the Australian Open on January 23, Aryna Sabalenka will play against Paula Badosa. Off the court, the tennis players are friends, but in face-to-face matches, one can often see a tough fight, although Aryna won the previous five face-to-face matches. According to what scenario will the events in the game develop today and should we expect any intrigue? - the answer is in our expert betting tip
Command Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka
BelarusCurrent form
Sabalenka entered the season as the world number one tennis player and clearly has no plans to give this title to anyone. In Melbourne, Arina is fighting to win her third title in a row. She went through four rounds without giving up any sets, although it is worth noting the difficult matches with Busas Maneiro (6-3, 7-5) and Tauson (7-6, 6-4). The Belarusian tennis player had the biggest difficulties in the quarterfinals with Pavlyuchenkova, where she managed to win only in three sets (6-2, 2-6, 6-3). In that match, Arina had a breakdown in the second set, after which she managed to return to the game.
Professional qualities
Arina plays in her usual aggressive style, relying on a powerful serve and a strong forehand. It should be noted that she has noticeably improved the stability of her game on the back line, plus she has clearly worked on her serve and is not trying to constantly take risks now, relying more and more on the accuracy of the first ball.
Current indicators in the tour
Since the beginning of the year, Sabalenka has managed to win the title in Brisbane and extended her winning streak to 10 matches. It should be noted that she only gave up games to her opponents in two cases.
Interesting facts for betting
- Sabalenka won four of her five matches in Melbourne with a straight-sets score of 2-0.
- No more than nine games were played in the first set in four of Arina five matches at the Australian Open
Paula Badosa
SpainCurrent form
Badosa had never made it past the 1/8 finals at the Australian Open before this year, but she has clearly come into her own and has rightfully made it to the semifinals. In the four opening rounds, Paula was the clear favorite among bookmakers and quite confidently confirmed this status. She lost her only set in the third round to Marta Kostyuk (6-4, 4-6, 6-3). In the quarterfinals, the Spaniard opponent was Cori Gauff. As expected, the game was tenacious and nervous, and the result was Badosa victory with a score of 7-5, 6-4.
Professional qualities
Paula has a powerful first serve in her arsenal, which brings her many easy points on fast surfaces, but her accuracy leaves much to be desired. The Spaniard tries to take the initiative in rallies into her own hands, is not afraid to take risks, and hit a winner. When she is in shape, as she is now, it is not easy to stop her.
Current indicators in the tour
In 2025, Badosa played eight matches on the tour, winning six. In the world rankings, she is currently ranked 12th in the world, but regardless of the outcome of today semi-final, she will return to the top 10 following the Australian Open.
Interesting facts for betting
- Badosa lost only one set on her way to the semi-finals
- In three previous Melbourne matches involving Badosa, more than nine games were played in the second set
Trends
Bet Total over 2.5 sets
Three of the six head-to-head matches saw the maximum number of sets played
2.49Match Tie-Break Bet – Yes
The tennis players played tie-breaks in three of their six personal meetings.
3.80Tip and bets
Arina and Paula know very well what to expect from each other, as they have played each other many times, and are friends off the court. In general, Sabalenka plays successfully against the Spaniard, winning four out of six personal meetings. At the same time, during the tournament, the Belarusian tennis player periodically allows herself to slump in the game, and even lost a set to Pavlyuchenkova. Badosa is clearly at the peak of her form now, as evidenced by her victory over Gauff. We think that a complete rout will not happen today from the world number one tennis player.
Our prediction is Badosa victory with a handicap of (+5) games with odds of 1.60
Bet on total
It should be noted that in three of the five matches on the way to the semi-finals, Sabalenka played more than 21 games. Plus, in three of the six head-to-head encounters, the tennis players exchanged winning sets. We expect a fairly close fight today and recommend betting on the total over.
The second bet is total over 21 games for 1.84
Bet on the second set
Note that in the three previous matches in Melbourne involving Badosa, more than nine games were played in the second set. We believe that this time, it is in this segment of the game that the most intense struggle will unfold.
Betting Tip - total games in the second set over 9.5 with odds of 2.10
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