Leganes vs Real Madrid: forecast and bets with odds of 4.75
Leganes will play in the quarterfinals of the Spanish Cup at their hometown Municipal de Butarque. Pepineros lost to cream in the national championship match, but what can we expect from the duel on February 5 against Real Madrid? Our experts evaluated the teams' chances and prepared the most optimal bets for the game. All the answers are in this forecast. In addition, our star expert Alexander Mostovoy shared his opinion about the upcoming match

Command Analysis

Leganes

Current form
Leganes continues its historic path in the Spanish Cup, reaching the quarterfinals for the second time in its history. Curiously, their previous appearance in the top 8 of the tournament was also accompanied by a meeting with Real Madrid in the 2017/18 season, when the Pepineros sensationally knocked out Madrid, winning the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu (2:1). In the current Cup draw, the team has already proved its fighting ability, beating Almeria on the road (3:2) in a tense match of the 1/8 finals. However, things are going less well for Borja Jimenez's players in the championship. In the last round of La Liga, Leganes lost to Rayo Vallecano (0:1), which extended their unbeaten streak to three matches.
The team occupies the 14th place in the standings, remaining at a relatively safe distance from the relegation zone, but unstable results do not allow us to relax. In the last two meetings, Leganes failed to score, which is in stark contrast to their attacking game in the Spanish Cup, where the team regularly hit the opponents' goal at least twice. It is worth noting that the match with Real Madrid will be Leganes' first home match in the Cup since 2022, as well as a great opportunity to please fans who have seen only one victory of the team at Butarka in the last five games. Despite the status of an outsider, the hosts intend to give battle to a famous opponent and try to repeat the feat of six years ago.
Disqualifications and injuries
Henrique Franquesa (knee injury) and Cisse (hamstring injury) will miss the match.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of Leganes' last five league matches, both teams have scored.
- Leganes demonstrates a reliable defensive game on their own field: three of the last four home matches ended in a zero victory.
- Sergio Gonzalez remains a key player of the team, regularly helping it score points with his goals.
- In the last six home meetings with Real Madrid, Leganes have won once, drawn twice and lost three times.
Approximate composition: Lopez – Brasanac, Cruz, Gonzalez, de la Fuente – Hernandez, Guairo, Raba, Carcelin – Gonzalez, Silva.

Real Madrid

Current form
As a 20-time winner of the Spanish Cup, Real Madrid once again reached the quarterfinals of the tournament, but their path to this stage was not easy. In the previous round, the cream met with Celta and only thanks to their super efforts in extra time managed to snatch a victory with a score of 5:2, avoiding a sensational relegation. In that match, Carlo Ancelotti's team demonstrated their attacking potential, but also revealed weaknesses in defense, conceding twice in regular time. In the championship, Real Madrid faced unexpected difficulties in the last round, having been defeated by Espanyol (0:1). This result not only ended their five-match winning streak in all tournaments, but also marked the first time since May 2023 that Madrid failed to score in an away match.
Prior to that, the team had shown incredible performance, scoring at least three times in four of the previous five away games. Despite this setback, Real Madrid is still one of the most stable clubs of the season, taking first place in La Liga with 49 points. Historically, the Spanish Cup has not always been successful for Madrid, and a trip on the Butarka will be a reminder of possible surprises. In the 2017/18 season, it was Leganes who knocked Real Madrid out of this stage of the tournament, which became one of the biggest sensations of that draw. Now, six years later, the cream ones have a chance to take revenge, but the opponent, playing on his own field, is clearly not going to give up without a fight.
Disqualifications and injuries
In the quarterfinals, Real Madrid will not be able to count on several key players: Eder Militao (knee injury), Dani Carvajal (knee injury), Eduardo Camavinga (muscle injury)
Interesting betting trends
- Real Madrid has not lost on the road since the beginning of the season, having won six of their last seven away matches.
- Madrid have scored at least twice in four of the last five league games.
- In the last five away meetings of Real Madrid in La Liga, more than 2.5 goals were recorded.
- Jude Bellingham remains a key figure in attack, having scored two goals in the last three matches.
Approximate line–up: Lunin - Vasquez, Rudiger, Alaba, Mendy – Tchuameni, Kroos, Bellingham – Rodrigo, Vinicius, Joselu
Trends
The bet is an accurate score of 1:4
The last face-to-face match ended with this score
4.60Bet Leganes won't score in the first half
In two of the last three face-to-face matches, such a bet took place.
1.35Bet Real Madrid will score in the second half
In two of the last three matches, the bet went up
1.30Tip and bets
The upcoming Spanish Cup match promises to be productive, as both teams are motivated to actively play in attack. Leganes, who reached the quarterfinals of the tournament, demonstrated their fighting ability at the previous stage by beating Almeria with a score of 3:2. Although the team is not stable in the championship, it plays bolder in the Cup, and the home factor can push the hosts to a more open game.
Real Madrid, in turn, proved their attacking prowess by scoring five goals in the last cup match against Celta (5-2 D.V.).Carlo Ancelotti's team consistently scores on the road and has the best attacking line in Spain. In the last six away matches of Real Madrid, at least three goals have been recorded in different tournaments. In addition, in four of the last five face-to-face meetings between these teams, a total of more than 2.5 goals was recorded, which confirms the productive nature of this confrontation. Given the attacking power of the guests, the instability of the Leganes defense and the cup nature of the match, we can expect a large number of scoring chances and a high total.
The forecast is a total of more than three goals with a coefficient of 2.10
Betting on the outcome
The Spanish Cup match between Leganes and Real Madrid looks like a serious test for the hosts, who will have to restrain the powerful attack of the cream. Real Madrid beat Celta at the last stage of the tournament (5-2 D.V.), and in La Liga it confidently occupies the first place, showing stable performance. Carlo Ancelotti's team wins the class, scoring an average of more than 2.5 goals per match. Leganes, although they reached the quarterfinals, are having difficulty attacking, having failed to score in the last two matches.
In face-to-face meetings with Real Madrid, the team also rarely demonstrated competitiveness. It is important to note that in the last five away matches of the Spanish Cup, Real Madrid have won by at least two goals. In addition, in four of the five previous meetings between these teams in official matches, the cream won with a difference of at least three goals. All these factors make the overwhelming success of the guests the most likely scenario.
Prediction — Real Madrid win by three goals with a coefficient of 4.75
Betting on statistics
Spanish Cup matches are traditionally accompanied by a large number of violations. Leganes, playing as an outsider, will certainly try to contain the attacking power of Real Madrid due to tight defensive play and tactical fouls. In their last five cup matches, an average of 4.2 yellow cards were recorded, and this figure was even higher against stronger opponents. Real Madrid is also not avoiding tough play this season, especially in matches where opponents rely on defensive football. Meetings with the participation of the "cream" in the Spanish Cup often take place in a tense struggle, which leads to frequent whistles from the referee. With this in mind, we can expect a large number of warnings.
The forecast is that the total number of yellow cards is more than 4.5 for a coefficient of 1.90