Valencia vs Leganes: forecast for the Spanish Championship match
Valencia will play their home match of the 23rd round of La Liga at the Mestalla Stadium. Will the home team, known for its unstable play on the home field, be able to cope with the challenge presented by Leganes, which is in good shape? Our experts evaluated the teams' chances and selected the most attractive bets for the upcoming match. Who will be stronger in this duel? The answers are in our forecast

Command Analysis

Valencia

Current form
Carlos Corberan continues to stabilize the situation at Valencia, and his work is already bearing fruit. Under his leadership, the team scored four wins in eight matches, which allowed it to get off the bottom of the standings and get closer to the safety zone. However, big defeats to Barcelona (0:5) in the Spanish Cup, as well as to Barca (1:7) and Real Madrid (1:2) in La Liga showed that los Ches still have a lot of work to do.
Nevertheless, Valencia is starting to get in shape on its own field. If the team achieves victory in the upcoming match, it will be their third consecutive victory at the Mestalla in the championship for the first time since February last year. Such a result would be an important step in the struggle to maintain a place in the elite. However, the statistics of personal meetings with Leganes do not speak in favor of the hosts: they have not won against this opponent in the last five matches and did not score in the last two face-to-face meetings.
Disqualifications and injuries
Against Leganes, Valencia will not be able to count on Thierry Correa (knee injury), Hugo Duro (injury) and Dimitri Fulkier (muscle injury).
Interesting betting trends
- Valencia have scored points in eight of their last ten home games.
- In four of Los Ches' last five La Liga matches, fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored.
- Valencia has not beaten Leganes since 2018, and failed to score in the last two face-to-face meetings.
- Diego Lopez scored a goal or an assist in three of the last five league matches.
Provisional squad: Giorgi Mamardashvili – Targeda, Gabriel Paulista, Christian Mosquera, Jose Gaia – Javi Guerra, Hugo Guillamon, Andre Almeida – Fran Perez, Diego Lopez, Pepelo

Leganes

Current form
Leganes are approaching this match with a four-point advantage over their opponent, but the team is facing the problem of missing goals and wins in the last two La Liga matches. Recent setbacks, including a 2-3 defeat to Real Madrid in the Spanish Cup, have dampened their ambitions a bit. Nevertheless, Borja Jimenez's wards continue to fight for their residence permit in the elite and hope to return to the winning path.
A positive aspect is their reliable away game — Leganes has not lost in the last four away matches of the championship. This series includes a sensational 1-0 victory over Barcelona, which proves their ability to withstand strong opponents. If they manage to avoid defeat at the Mestalla, it will repeat their best unbeaten away run in the club's history at La Liga level.
Disqualifications and injuries
In the upcoming match against Valencia, Leganes will not be able to count on Henrique Francquez (knee injury) and Sergio Gonzalez (red card).
Interesting betting trends
- In three of Leganes' last five league matches, both teams have scored.
- Leganes have not lost in four of the last five away La Liga matches.
- Leganes has not lost to Valencia in La Liga since 2018, remaining undefeated in the last five face-to-face meetings.
- Miguel de la Fuente scored two of the team's last three goals and remains a key figure in attack.
Approximate composition: Dani Jimenez – Brasanac, Cruz, Omeruo, de la Fuente – Hernandez, Guairo, Raba, Carcelin – Silva, Miguel.
Trends
Bet Goals in both halves – yes
In the last three face-to-face matches, goals have been scored in each half.
1.76The bet is an accurate score of 2:1
Two of the last ten face-to-face matches ended with this score
12.55Cornerrate: total more than 9.5
This betting option has been used in 2 of the last 4 matches of Valencia
1.99Penalty Shootoutrate- no
In four of the last six face-to-face matches, no penalty was awarded.
1.25Tip and bets
In the upcoming La Liga match between Valencia and Leganes, we can expect a productive game with an abundance of scoring chances. Both teams have difficulties in defense, but they have potential in attack, which makes a high-total scenario very likely. Valencia, despite the unstable results in the season, traditionally plays aggressively at the Mestalla. Carlos Corberan's team is striving to improve their position in the standings, and confident performances on their own field help them stay competitive. Los Ches have won their last two La Liga home matches, and their attack shows the ability to open up the opponents' defenses.
Leganes are also not reliable in defense, which is confirmed by their recent away matches. The team consistently concedes on someone else's field and in five of the last seven meetings on the road allowed the opponents to score at least twice. However, Leganes' attack is capable of causing problems for the hosts, especially considering their successful statistics against Valencia — in the last five face-to-face matches, Pepineros have not lost once. Given the vulnerability of both teams' defenses and their motivation to score points, we can expect open football and a high total of goals.
Our forecast is a total of more than 2.5 goals. We bet on this outcome with a coefficient of 2.65
Betting on the outcome
The match at the Mestalla between Valencia and Leganes will provide the hosts with an excellent opportunity to strengthen their position in La Liga. Valencia traditionally demonstrates a fighting spirit and a determination to win in their home matches. Despite the unstable results in the season, Corberan's team is confidently competing at the Mestalla. In the last game, they scored an important 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad, which confirms their ability to produce results at their home stadium. Leganes, in turn, is experiencing difficulties on the road. The team has not won in the last six away matches of La Liga, and their game against teams from the Valencia region also leaves much to be desired — they have lost seven of the last nine meetings. In addition, Leganes will approach this match with personnel losses, which may weaken their game in attack and defense. Historically, Valencia feels confident in their home games against Leganes, and they should take full advantage of this match.
Our forecast is a victory for Valencia with a coefficient of 1.83
Betting on statistics
An active and dynamic match is expected, as both teams have defensive problems and are playing with an emphasis on attacks. Valencia, playing on their own field, always makes efforts to create pressure on the opponent, which leads to a large number of shots on goal. In recent home matches, Los Ches have averaged more than four shots on target per game. Leganes, despite the difficulties in away games, also creates chances, often using long-range shots. In the last five away games, they have shot on target at least three times. Given the importance of this meeting for both teams, we can expect a large number of attacks and attempts to shoot through the goal.
Forecast — shots on target are more than 8.5 with a coefficient of 1.95