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Brighton vs Chelsea: forecast and bets with odds of 3.80
Six days ago, Brighton defeated Chelsea in the 1/16 FA Cup final with a score of 2:1. In the 25th round of the Premier League on February 14, the Aristocrats have a chance to take revenge. The bookmakers are giving the advantage to the guests today, should we expect a victory from Enzo Maresca's team? We recommend that you review our forecast and choose the best bets for the game. The star experts of the website Roman Pavlyuchenko and Dmitry Gradilenko also share their opinion on the match
Command Analysis
Brighton & Hove Albion
EnglandCurrent form
Before the start of the season, Brighton clearly set the task to compete for a place in the top 6 and for a ticket to European competitions. However, it was not possible to complete the entire distance exactly, and now the "seagulls" can only claim a place in the top ten. After 24 rounds, the team has 34 points, an intermediate tenth place with a gap of seven points from the top 6.
In the last two rounds, Fabian Hürzeler's team suffered defeats from Everton at home (0:1) and from Nottingham Forest on the road with a crushing score of 0:7. Of course, no one expected such a failure in the confrontation with the foresters, but that day absolutely nothing worked out on the field, and the opponent used practically created chances. Brighton managed to rehabilitate themselves in front of the fans in the 1/16 FA Cup final, beating Chelsea (2:1) on their own field, although the opponent opened the score first, more precisely, it was goalkeeper Verbruggen's own goal.
It should be noted that the Seagulls have repeatedly taken points from higher opponents on their own field during the season. We can recall the draws with Nottingham Forest (2:2) and Arsenal (1:1), the victory over Manchester City (2:1). Since the beginning of the season, Brighton has suffered only two defeats at home in the Premier League, managed to win only three times, but six matches ended in a draw at once.
Of the recent transfers, we note the appearance of Eiran Kashin from Derby County. Valentin Barko went on loan to Strasbourg, Evan Ferguson went on loan to West Ham.
Disqualifications and injuries
Kadioglu, Milner, Igor, Steele and March will not play due to injuries. The entry of Dank, Estupignan and Viffer into the field is questionable.
Interesting betting trends
- In the last 12 matches in the Premier League, Brighton have scored only two wins, while in six cases they have drawn.
- In 6 of 11 home matches in the Premier League, the Seagulls played a draw.
- In 12 of the 16 previous league matches involving Brighton, there was an exchange of goals scored.
- In three of the last four matches, Brighton have not lost by offside
Approximate line–up: Verbruggen – Veltman, Webster, van Hecke, Lampty – Hinshelwood, Baleba - Minte, Rutter, Mitoma – Welbeck.
Chelsea
EnglandCurrent form
Chelsea has been among Liverpool's main pursuers for a long time since the start of the season and claimed second place. The Londoners have made tangible progress in organizing the game under the leadership of Enzo Maresca. However, the recession could not be avoided. In December and January, they had an unpleasant streak of five matches without a win in the Premier League. Such failures led to the fact that the "aristocrats" almost left the top 4. It is worth paying tribute, first of all, to the head coach, who managed to stabilize the situation. In two of the last three rounds, Wolverhampton (3:1) and West Ham (2:1) managed to win, thanks to which the team holds the fourth place after 24 rounds, but the gap from Manchester City is only two points.
Chelsea's recent away setbacks are alarming - a series of four matches without an away win. There were two draws and two defeats during this period. It's also worth adding the 1-2 away defeat to Brighton six days ago in the Cup.
The Chelsea management continues to actively purge the squad. During this winter transfer window, I have already sent Caleb Wiley, Benjamin Chilwell, Axel Disasi, Joao Felix, and Karni Chukwuemeka to various clubs. Mathis Amugu, who came from Saint-Etienne, joined the ranks of the team.
Disqualifications and injuries
Badyashil, D. Fofana, U. Fofana, Lavia, Giu, Jackson will not play due to injuries. Mudrik has not played for a long time because of a failed doping test.
Interesting betting trends
- In five consecutive matches involving Chelsea, there has been an exchange of goals scored in all tournaments.
- In 10 of Chelsea's previous 13 Premier League matches, at least three goals have been scored.
- In 16 of the last 19 matches, Chelsea have taken more corners than their opponents.
Approximate composition: Jorgensen– James, Chalobah, Colville, Cucurella–Caicedo, Fernandez–Madueke, Palmer, Sancho – Nkunku.
Trends
The Total Brighton cornerrateis less than 5.5
The bet played in six of the seven personal meetings in the Premier League at the Brighton field
1.60Bet Brighton will score in the first half
In three of the last four face-to-face matches, Brighton scored goals in the opening 45 minutes.
2.10The bet is an accurate score of 1:1
In 6 of 11 home matches in the Premier League, Brighton was at odds with their rivals.
6.70The Brightonbetwon't lose on shots on target
In 9 of the previous 12 matches, Brighton's players scored more shots on goal than their opponents.
1.81Bet Goals in both halves – yes
The bet was successful in three of the last five face-to-face meetings
1.44xG Statistics
Tip and bets
Brighton defeated Chelsea in the cup game six days ago. Of course, we can say that the "aristocrats" did not release the main squad in that meeting, but at the same time, one should not underestimate Fabian Hurzeler's wards in home matches. The Seagulls have lost only three times in the Premier League, and they have already taken points from Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City. It is impossible not to pay attention to the fact that in 6 out of 11 matches at home, Brighton played a draw. The "Pensioners" have not won four away matches in the Premier League in a row, and the Londoners are not so confident now that they can safely bet on their victory away. We believe that there is a high probability of a draw in the upcoming meeting.
Our forecast is a draw for a coefficient of 3.80
Bet on the total
Let's pay attention to the fact that in the last seven home matches of Brighton, taking into account all tournaments, only once more than three goals were scored. On their own field, the Seagulls are quite reliable in defense and are unlikely to allow the opponent to distinguish himself more than once.
The second bet is Chelsea's individual goal total of less than 1.5 with a coefficient of 1.96
A bet on yellow cards
Let's note a promising trend for yellow cards. Chelsea players have not received more than two yellow cards in six of the last seven face-to-face meetings at the Brighton field in the Premier League. Accordingly, we recommend another option for betting with a high coefficient.
Prediction – Chelsea's total of yellow cards is less than 2.5 with a coefficient of 2.20
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