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Bagel - Fonseca. Prediction for the ATP Phoenix match
Bublik and Fonseca will meet in the finals of the tournament in Phoenix on March 17. Fonseca has already played in two finals this season and won both of them. Will the Brazilian be able to win his third final this year? - the bets for this match are in our betting tip
Command Analysis
Alexander Bublik
KazakhstanCurrent form
Bublik beat Nuno Borges 6-3, 6-4 in the semi-finals of the challenger in Phoenix. Alexander made 16 aces, made three break points and lost one game on his serve in a duel against the Portuguese. Earlier, the representative of Kazakhstan passed Korenten Mute, Rinki Hijikatu and Alexander Vukic in the tournament bracket.
Professional qualities
The bagel has a strong serving in its arsenal, but it is not a typical serving. His game is characterized by good technique and unpredictability — he can serve with his hand, which adds an element of surprise. Alexander consistently holds strong positions in the tour, but his psychological instability prevents him from achieving permanent success.
Current indicators in the tour
Bublik is the 82nd racket of the world at the moment. During his career, the 27-year-old Kazakh has won four ATP titles. He won the last one in 2024 at a competition in Montpellier.
Interesting facts for betting
5 of the last 6 matches of the Bagel were played in three sets.
Joao Fonseca
BrazilCurrent form
Fonseca defeated Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-3 in the semifinals at the Phoenix tournament. Joao scored seven aces, made three break points, and did not lose a single game on his serve against the famous Japanese. Earlier, the Brazilian passed Hugo Gatson, Jan-Lennard Struff and Pavel Kotov in the tournament bracket.
Professional qualities
Fonseca is a dangerous opponent due to his powerful forehand. He is gradually improving his serve, which was previously his weak link. Now he has fewer double faults, which helps him achieve victories more often.
Current indicators in the tour
Fonseca has won two ATP trophies in his career. In 2025, Joao won his last title by winning a competition in Buenos Aires. The 18-year-old Brazilian is currently in 80th place in the world rankings.
Interesting facts for betting
Fonseca has scored ten wins in the last 12 matches.
Trends
There is no Tie-breakbetin the match
This bet played in 3 of Fonseca's 5 previous matches.
1.48Bet Effectiveness of sets: 1>2
In 3 of the last 5 matches of the Bublik, events on the court developed according to this scenario
2.24Tip and bets
The bagel, it seems to us, has already jumped above its head. On the courts of Phoenix, he has already passed the inconvenient Moute and Borges. It will be extremely difficult for a representative of Kazakhstan to cope with the Fonseca. The Brazilian is young, full of energy, and most importantly, he is in incredible shape right now, and he has only two defeats in 16 matches on the open court this season.
Our prediction is that Fonseca will win with a handicap of (-3) games for a coefficient of 1.74
Bet on the total
Fonseca is a clear favorite in this pair. He surpasses Bublik in mobility on the tennis court. We believe that this final will not last long and will end with a confident victory for the Brazilian.
The second betting tip is a total of less than 22 games for a coefficient of 1.95
Bet on the first set
In three of Fonseca's last five matches, more than 9.5 games were played in the first set. Most likely, the upcoming duel against Bagel will also begin with the riding of the first game.
The betting tip is a total of more than 9.5 games in the first set for a coefficient of 1.82
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