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Germany - Italy: betting tip and bets with a coefficient of 3.70
On March 23, the German national team will play Italy in the second leg of the quarterfinals of the League of Nations. The Bundestim won on the road and have a great chance of reaching the semifinals. Will the Italians be able to win back in Dortmund today? What are the best bets for the match? - the answer is in our betting tip. The star experts of the site, Alexander Mostovoy and Dmitry Gradilenko, also share their opinion on the game
Command Analysis
Germany
GermanyCurrent form
Germany had a strong group stage in the League of Nations, scored 14 points in six rounds, with which it finished in first place. The German squad lost points only twice in their quartet when they drew with the Netherlands (2:2) and Hungary (1:1). It is characteristic that these peaceful outcomes happened on the road, while at home they managed to score the maximum nine points. In many ways, the national team was able to achieve success due to a powerful attack, scoring 18 goals, and seven of them were in the home game against Bosnia and Herzegovina (7-0).
In the first match of the quarterfinals against Italy on the road, Julian Nagelsmann's team conceded a goal in the ninth minute. I couldn't win back in the first 45 minutes. However, in the second half, the German national team seized the initiative and scored two goals. Kleindienst, who came on as a substitute, and Gorecka, who had not been called up to the national team for almost a year and a half, scored goals in that meeting. Now, in order to qualify for the semifinals, it is enough not to lose on your own field.
It should be noted that at the moment the German national team has an impressive unbeaten streak in regular time of 16 matches. The last time the team lost was back in November 2023, when they lost to Austria in a friendly sparring match (0:2).
Disqualifications and injuries
Due to injury, Wirtz, Pavlovic, ter Stegen, Havertz and Henricks will not help their national team in the upcoming match.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of the last five matches, the German national team has not won in the first half.
- The German national team has won four of the last five matches in the League of Nations.
- In six of the last seven home games in the League of Nations, the German national team has not conceded more than one goal.
- At least three goals have been scored in six of Germany's last eight matches in the LN
Approximate composition: Baumann–Kimmich, Rüdiger, Ta, Raum–Andrich, Gross–Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi–Kleindienst.
Italy
ItalyCurrent form
The Italians led the table in their Nations League group until the last round, and in the final game on their own field they only had to draw with France to advance to the playoffs from first place. However, there was a setback in that meeting – defeat 1:3. In the end, Squadra Azzurra finished in second place with 13 points.
It should be noted that even in the group stage, under the leadership of Luciano Spalletti, the team demonstrated quite bold attacking football. In all six rounds, the Italians did not remain without scoring goals. However, the defense is not yet at the proper level – nevertheless, eight goals conceded in six meetings is clearly a lot for the top team. Italy won back to zero in the quartet in only one match against Belgium – an away victory with a minimum score of 1:0. In general, taking into account the Euro 2024 matches, the Azzurr Squadron played 11 matches and only once left their gates locked.
Largely due to unreliable defensive actions in the second half of the home game against Germany, the Italians conceded two goals. The effect is that Spalletti is constantly changing the ligaments in defense. Plus, there are problems on the flanks, as Mateo Retega and Andrea Cambiaso were already injured during the training camp.
Disqualifications and injuries
Due to injuries to the Italian national team, DiMarco, Cambiaso, Retegui, Calafiori will not help today.
Interesting betting trends
- In four of the last five matches, the Italians have won in the first half.
- The exchange of goals was in four of the five previous matches of the Italian national team.
- In five of the last six away matches in the Nations League, the Italian national team has scored at least two goals.
- The Italian national team has not conceded more than one goal in 10 of the last 12 away games in the League of Nations.
Approximate composition: Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni – Cambiaso, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Udoggi – Raspadori, Kin.
Trends
The rate of Total shots on goal: Germany is more than 4.5
Stavka has played in 10 of the last 11 home matches of the German national team in the League of Nations
1.57Bet Germany will score in the second half
In the last four matches, the German national team has scored goals in the second 45 minutes.
1.54The bet is an accurate score of 2:1
Italy has suffered two of the last three defeats, conceding two goals apiece.
8.201st halfbet: total less than 1.5 goals
This bet was successful in three of the previous five matches in both Germany and Italy.
1.47Germany's Total cornerrateis less than 5.5
The German national team did not serve more than five corners in the previous six home matches in the LN
1.62Tip and bets
In the first game, the opponents played quite boldly in attack, did not stay too long in defense, and a decent number of dangerous moments were created. The result was an exchange of goals scored and a German victory. Today, in our opinion, we should expect a similar scenario. The current Italian national team, led by Spalletti, plays in a fairly open manner, but there are many problems in defense, there is no constant bunch of defenders. It is no coincidence that in the last 11 matches, Squadra Azzurra has only scored once. The German squad on their own field is unlikely to hold the advantage they have gained, and the guests need to recoup, most likely, the game will open at some point. We believe that the bet on the exchange of goals scored in this pair is the most optimal.
Our betting tip is that both will score for a coefficient of 1.76
Betting on the outcome
In Milan, Julian Nagelsmann's team was able to improve during the match, and the substitutions in the second half also had a positive effect. In general, the game of the German squad is more balanced, it is rare to see outright failures. We expect that due to their stability, the hosts will have a better chance of winning today.
The second bet is a German victory with a coefficient of 1.85
A bet on the exact difference in the bill
In the first game, the German national team won with a one-goal advantage. It cannot be said that there is a significant difference in class between the rivals, there is a high probability that this time the victory will be minimal.
Betting Tip – Germany wins with a one-goal advantage with a coefficient of 3.70
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