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Sobolenko - Paolini: betting tip for the Miami WTA match
Arina Sobolenko will play Jasmine Paolini in the first semi-final of the tournament in Miami on March 27. The Belarusian tennis player confidently played four matches, did not give up a single set to her rivals and is rightfully the clear favorite of the bookmakers today. How will the game go and what bets should I choose? - the answer is further in our betting tip
Command Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka
BelarusCurrent form
Sobolenko confidently confirms the status of the main favorite for the title in Miami. Arina played four matches on her way to the semifinals, in which she did not lose a single set. In the last two matches, she beat Collins (6-4, 6-4) and Zheng Jingwen (6-2, 7-5). It was noticeable that in these meetings she improved at the right moments, controlled the course of the game, and had a decent margin of safety.
Professional qualities
Arina plays calmly and confidently in a forceful manner, using her full potential of her first serve and powerful forehand. It should be noted that the tennis player did a decent job on her serve, now it is rare to see a huge number of double mistakes in her performance.
Current indicators in the tour
Sobolenko does not allow herself outright failures and confidently holds the title of the first racket of the world. In total, in 2025, she played 26 matches in the tour, in which she scored 22 victories. Sobolenko won her only title in January at a tournament in Brisbane.
Interesting facts for betting
- With an accurate score of 2-0 in sets, Sobolenko won in 12 previous matches.
- In only one of Sobolenko's nine previous matches, more than nine games were played in the first set.
Jasmine Paolini
ItalyCurrent form
Since the beginning of the year, Paolini has not shown a confident game, most often she overcame one or two rounds and sheathed her racket. Nevertheless, Jasmine is showing her best side in Miami and for the first time in her career she made it to the semifinals here. She had the most difficulties in the 1/8 finals, when she needed to play three sets (3-6, 6-4, 6-4) to defeat Osaka. In the quarterfinals, the Italian stopped Lynette, who scored an impressive move (6-3, 6-2).
Professional qualities
Paolni relies on reliable actions on the back line and good reception in his game. At the same time, Jasmine is able to clearly take advantage of opponents' mistakes, and can sharpen the game with sharp punches deep under the back line.
Current indicators in the tour
Since the beginning of the year, the Italian tennis player has played 17 matches in the tour, in which she won 12 victories. She currently ranks seventh in the world rankings.
Interesting facts for betting
- In the last two face-to-face matches, Paolini lost to Sobolenko.
- In three of the four previous matches involving Paolini, more than nine games were played in the second game.
Trends
The Totalbetis less than 2.5 sets
In three of the last four face-to-face matches, the tennis players played two sets each.
1.30Bet Effectiveness of sets: 2>1
This is how events developed on the court in the last three personal meetings between Sobolenko and Paolini.
2.21Tip and bets
Sobolenko is aiming for the title in Miami, she has not lost a single game on her way to the semifinals, she is playing with a decent margin and it is unlikely that the Italian tennis player will stop her today. We don't think Paolini will be able to stop Arina's attacks, especially given the weak actions on his serve. In the previous two face-to-face matches, Sobolenko dealt with Jasmine confidently enough without losing games, which we are waiting for today.
Our betting tip is for Sobolenko to win with a handicap of (-5) games with a coefficient of 1.75
Bet on the total
In the quarterfinals, Sobolenko lost only seven games to Zheng Jingwen. We don't think that Paolini, who has a weak serve, can count on anything more today.
The second bet is a total of less than 19.5 games for 1.95
Bet on the first set
In the last nine matches with Sobolenko, only once in the first set more than nine games were played. We expect that Arina will confidently seize the advantage in the semifinals.
The betting tip is that the total number of games in the first set is less than 9.5 with a coefficient of 1.55
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