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Pol vs Fognini: ATP Shanghai Match Prediction
On October 4, Paul and Fognini will clash in the second round of the Shanghai tournament. In this upcoming match, Paul is considered the favorite, yet his recent form raises questions. Since the Olympics, the American has struggled to meet expectations, losing to several lower-ranked opponents. What bets should you focus on for this matchup? Find out in our betting tip.
Command Analysis
Tommy Paul
USACurrent Form
Paul competed last week in Tokyo. During the tournament, Tommy only managed to reach the opening round, defeating Matteo Arnaldi but later losing to Tomas Mahac. This season on hard courts, the American has recorded 15 wins and 10 losses.
Professional Qualities
Paul exhibits versatility as a tennis player, showcasing prowess in both his playing style and across different surfaces. He has demonstrated solid performance on clay, hard courts, and grass. Tommy possesses excellent mobility and moves well along the baseline, coupled with a strong ball sense. His technique is well-rounded with a powerful forehand, effective serve, and solid backhand, along with a strong return game.
Current Tour Statistics
Paul is on the verge of breaking into the top 10 of the ATP rankings. He is currently positioned at 13th place. This year, he has clinched two titles, winning indoors in Dallas and on grass in Queen’s. Paul now has three ATP titles to his name throughout his career.
Interesting Betting Insights
In his last four matches, Paul has played five tiebreaks.
Fabio Fognini
ItalyCurrent Form
Fognini triumphed in the first round of the Shanghai Masters against Luciano Darderi with a score of 6-4, 5-7, 6-4. In this match, Fabio served nine aces, converted three break points, and dropped one game on his serve. For the Italian veteran, this marked his fifth victory against eight losses on open hard courts.
Professional Qualities
Fognini adopts a purely aggressive style of play, yet as he ages, it becomes increasingly challenging for him to offset his errors with outright winners. Standing at 178 cm, the Italian cannot rely on a consistently strong first serve, which leads him to focus on dominating rallies.
Current Tour Statistics
Once ranked as the world’s ninth-best player, Fognini is currently placed at 80 in the global rankings. His standout performance this year was at a clay tournament in San Marino, where he reached the semifinals.
Betting Insights
Seven out of twelve matches played by Fognini on open hard courts this season have gone to three sets.
Trends
Bet Set Performance: 1>2
In 3 of Paul’s last 5 matches, the court events unfolded in this manner
2.16Bet No Tiebreak in Match
This bet has been successful in Fonini's last five matches
1.31Tip and bets
Although Paul is viewed as the favorite in this matchup, his recent form has been concerning. The American has struggled to meet the high expectations set after the Olympics, suffering defeats against several lower-ranked rivals. In contrast, Fognini displays a fighting spirit and is ready to battle for every point. We believe the Italian will put up a strong challenge in this contest.
Our prediction is a victory for Fognini with a game handicap of (+6) at odds of 1.77
Total Bet
Paul is currently not in his best form, making it difficult for him to easily confirm his status as the match favorite. We anticipate that this bout will likely be lengthy.
Our second prediction is over 20 games with odds of 2.12.
First Set Bet
In three of Fabio Fognini's last five matches, fewer than 9.5 games were played in the first set. We believe that the upcoming match against Paul will also start with a low-scoring first set.
The prediction is under 9.5 games in the first set with odds of 1.73.
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