Zenit vs Lokomotiv: who is the favourite?

Zenit and Lokomotiv will compete for the Russian Super Cup for the third time in a row. The game will take place in Kaliningrad on Saturday, July 17. We have made a prediction for the outcome of this game, which you can find below. Who will lift the trophy?

Command Analysis

Zenit St. Petersburg

Zenit had an ambiguous last season. Sergei Semak's team suffered a complete fiasco in the Champions League. The Russian champion scored only one point in six games of the group stage and finished last, seven points behind the third line. Of course, a club with serious ambitions should be utterly disappointed with such results.
At the same time, in the Russian Premier League, the Blue-white-and-blues did not experience any serious problems. For a short period of time, Zenit was pressured by Spartak, CSKA, and Lokomotiv, but in the end, they managed to break away from the Red-whites by eight points.
In the offseason, Andrey Lunev left the team - the goalkeeper transferred to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. In preparation for the next season, Zenit played few test matches - in the last one, they beat Karlsruher SC with a score of 3:1. Wilmar Barrios, who played at Copa America this summer, won't join the team for this game. Dejan Lovren joined the team just before the Super Cup.
Sardar Azmoun's form is also in question, as well as all the players of the national team, who played at Euro 2020 - they did not go through the full cycle of preparation for the season.

Lokomotiv Moscow

Lokomotiv demonstrated weak performance in the first half of the season last year. Marko Nikolic's team went on a winter break being in the bottom half of the table. However, after the break, Lokomotiv stepped up their game and got on a long winning streak. At a certain moment, they even could compete for the champion's title, but in the end, Loko finished third.
Lokomotiv, unlike their opponent, have made some changes to their lineup. Vedran Corluka, who had been Loko's main defender for many years, finished his career as a player and joined the team's management. Eder and Solomon Kverkvelia left Loko as free agents, and Vladislav Ignatiev joined Rubin.
Lokomotiv have prepared intensively for the start of the season, they played more test matches than Zenit, and in the last one, they lost to Rostov with a score of 1:2.
Trends
СтавкаCorrect Score 1: 1
Two of the last 14 head-to-head games ended with this score.

СтавкаLokomotiv To Score In 2nd Half
This bet played in the last two games of Lokomotiv.

СтавкаZenit To Score In 2nd Half
Zenit have scored in the second half in their last two games.

СтавкаPenalty: Yes
Penalties were given in the last two games of Zenit.

Tip and bets
Zenit are approaching the new season with a few problems. The key central defender didn't participate in the preseason training, Barrios won't be covering the midfield, there are many questions to the leaders of the attack, Artem Dzyuba and Sardar Azmoun. Malcolm will be helping his national team at the Olympic games.
Lokomotiv had more time to prepare for the season, they played more test matches. So at least in terms of form Loko is in a better place than Zenit. Lokomotiv can show quality defensive play, and Zenit will definitely struggle to break through that defense line.
Our prediction - Lokomotiv to win with an Asian handicap (+1)
The teams are definitely not in their optimal form. The summer tournaments, such as Euro Championship and Copa America, have interfered with the usual preseason preparations. So we don't think that this game will be full of attacking chances and goals. Lokomotiv will not take initiative and full control of the game, but Zenit won't be able to crush their opponent.
Our second bet - total under 2.5 goals.