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Winnipeg vs. Montreal: NHL Match Prediction
Winnipeg will play Montreal on December 15 at home. Bookmakers clearly favor the Jets in this matchup and expect them to win in regulation time. The Tricolors have indeed performed poorly for most of the season, but have recently earned points quite often. They also ended previous matches against their counterparts in their favor. What bet is better to make this time? Find out the answer from our forecast
Command Analysis
Winnipeg Jets
CanadaCurrent form
Winnipeg has once again topped the Western Conference standings and is currently one point ahead of its main rival, Minnesota. The team, however, is far from its best form and has not been able to get off to a long winning streak lately. As a rule, it has alternated successful matches with defeats. Thus, the Jets dealt with Chicago on the road (4:2), then lost to Columbus at home (1:4), and after a big win over Boston (8:1), they again failed to cope with Vegas, losing to them with a score of 2:3 in overtime.
At the same time, in the match with the "knights", the "air army" had everything to win. It had a minimal advantage twice during the game and even scored a goal in the 51st minute, but two penalties at the very end of the third period gave the opponent a chance to recoup. In general, in that game, Winnipeg was not so active in the attack zone and made only 20 shots, while the opponent threatened its goal 36 times.
However, Scott Arniel team is still performing better at home than on the road this year, and in 14 games played, they have only lost within 60 minutes three times. Oddly enough, the Jets are most productive in the third twenty minutes, during which they often score goals and currently have a 44:31 ratio of goals scored and goals conceded.
Disqualifications and injuries
Ehlers, Gustafsson, Samberg will not play in the upcoming match due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- Winnipeg averages 3.93 goals per game on home ice.
The Jets have been showing decent performance on their home court all season long.
- Winnipeg gets 8.97 penalty minutes per game.
On average, the Jets are sent off about four to five times per game.
Montreal Canadiens
CanadaCurrent form
Montreal remains the main outsider of the Eastern Conference, although it is only one point behind its closest competitor. If at the start of the season the team showed a very bad game and was often on a losing streak, now it does without losing streaks and tries to at least alternate successful matches with losses. Before that, the Canadians dealt with Nashville (3:0) on their home ice, then lost to Washington (2:4), and after a difficult victory over Anaheim (3:2 SO) they lost to Pittsburgh with a rout, conceding a total of nine goals - 2:9.
The third period was especially disastrous for the "tricolors", during which they allowed their opponent to score six times, although they had every chance to earn points before the start of the third period. Even the change of goalkeeper did not help prevent a real rout, because Kayden Primeau missed three times.
However, throughout the season, the final twenty minutes often do not work out well for Martin St. Louis team, since they already have a 29:40 ratio of goals scored and goals conceded. But Montreal plays well in unequal compositions, especially in the minority, since they occupy 11th place in the league in this indicator and have exactly 81% of the opponent power play neutralization. True, the club has big problems with the game in defense, since on average they allow about four goals per match.
Disqualifications and injuries
Price and Savard will not play in the upcoming match due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- Montreal averages 10.59 penalty minutes
Canadians are usually sent off at least five times per match.
- The Tricolors have 21.1% of the majority implementation
The team currently ranks 16th in the league in terms of
Trends
Bet 1st period: total over 1.5 goals
In three out of five matches between the teams, the first period was productive
1.80Bet 3rd period: guests will score
In three of the five games against Winnipeg, the visitors scored in the third period.
1.65Tip and bets
In our opinion, bookmakers greatly underestimate Montreal in this confrontation. The Tri-Colors have done well against Winnipeg in previous face-to-face encounters and have shown a reliable game. Of course, in the last match with Pittsburgh, the visitors completely failed, but this defeat should motivate them. In the Canadian derby, they will certainly try to show their best side. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that the Jets have been playing very inconsistently lately and have often stumbled. We think that the St. Louis team will not lose by a large margin.
Prediction - Montreal win with Asian handicap (+1.5) on goals for 1.77
Bet on individual total
Winnipeg hasn't scored more than three goals in four previous games against Montreal. In general, the Jets have often had problems with scoring in previous games and haven't been able to penetrate the opponents' defense more than twice. The visitors, in turn, will pay more attention to defense after a crushing defeat, so we don't think Arniel team will score four times.
We bet on Winnipeg individual total under 3.5 goals with odds of 1.80
Total Bet
Matches between the teams are often not particularly productive. In derbies, the clubs prefer not to take unnecessary risks and try to play as reliably as possible in their zone and on their own crease. Thus, the last four matches between Winnipeg and Montreal ended with fewer than seven goals scored. Given the Jets' style of play, we won't expect a large number of goals this time either.
We take the total under 6.5 goals with a coefficient of 1.52
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