Liontips
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov. Fight Prediction
The champion of the Ultimate Fighting Championship in the bantamweight category Merab Dvalishvili will meet Umar Nurmagomedov. The fight will take place on January 19 as part of the UFC 311 tournament in Los Angeles (USA) at the Intute Dome arena, which is the home court of the National Basketball Association (NBA) club Los Angeles Clippers and holds about 18 thousand spectators. The approximate start of the fight is 07:00 Moscow time. Will the fighter from Georgia be able to defend his title in the fight with the Russian and what bets to choose? - read our betting tip
Command Analysis
Merab Dvalishvili
USACurrent form
Merab Dvalishvili is the current UFC bantamweight champion and the second Georgian to win the title after Ilia Topuria. He is ranked seventh in the pound-for-pound rankings. Dvalishvili began his career in 2014, performing in such promotions as CFFC and Ring of Combat. After successfully defending the ROC title, he was noticed on the Dana White: Lookin' for a Fight show, where he knocked out Rafion Stots with a spinning kick in just 15 seconds, which earned him a contract with the UFC. Merab made his debut in the Dana White League on December 9, 2017, in a fight against Frankie Saens. Despite losing by split decision, he quickly gained momentum, winning many victories. His golden collection also includes victories over Terrion Ware, Brad Katona and Casey Kenney. On September 25, 2021, at UFC 266, Dvalishvili made an impressive comeback, defeating Marlon Moraes via TKO, for which he earned Performance of the Night honors. In March 2023, he faced Petr Yan, setting a UFC record for most takedown attempts in a single fight (49), and won convincingly. On September 14, 2024, at UFC 306, Dvalishvili won the UFC bantamweight title by defeating Sean O'Malley via unanimous decision. He is second in UFC history for takedowns (85) and holds the bantamweight record for most takedowns (72). The 34-year-old fighter has 17 wins (four by knockout, 12 by decision, one by submission) and four losses.
The Machine is also a silver medalist at the 2019 World Sambo Championships and the winner of the 2023 High Rollerz 23 tournament.
Latest news
Dvalishvili said that he will not kiss Nurmagomedov in the fight, like O'Malley.
No, no kisses for Umar. Did he deserve kisses? Is Sean cuter? That not the point (laughs). No kisses for Umar. Just punches, Dvalishvili said.
ASA Vice President Aslanbek Badayev shared his expectations for the fight.
Merab is superior to Umar in wrestling, but Nurmagomedov will tie him up on the ground. Moreover, Merab does not have good control. If Dvalishvili will translate, Umar will be able to defend himself, get up. He is viscous. Merab will get stuck. And the question is about cardio. Dvalishvili is good when he himself goes forward, but here he will be tested. Umar is better in the stand-up. He is a basic striker, a Thai fighter. Pressure is in Merab favor. But fruitless pressure is also not an option. There will be five tough rounds, but Umar will get his way, Metaratings.ru quotes Badaev as saying.
Interesting trends for betting
Dvalishvili takedown success rate is 37 percent.
Merab strike accuracy is 42 percent.
Accented strikes - 64 percent to the head.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russian FederationCurrent form
Umar Nurmagomedov has previously competed in the Eagle Fighting Championship and Professional Fighters League (PFL). The fighter from Dagestan is the older brother of Bellator champion Usman Nurmagomedov and the cousin of legendary former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Young Eagle is ranked third in the UFC division. Nurmagomedov, 29, has 18 wins (two by knockout, nine by decision, seven by submission) and zero losses. He made his professional debut in December 2016 in Moscow, defeating Rishat Kharisov via choke (guillotine) in the second round at Fight Nights Global 57. His career quickly gained momentum. Umar won tournaments in FNG, Samara MMA Federation and Gorilla Fighting Championship. Umar won the GFC and Samara MMA bantamweight titles and successfully defended them three times. In addition, he participated in PFL tournaments, where he scored impressive victories over strong opponents, including Saidyokub Kakramonov and Sidemar Onorio. In January 2021, the Dagestani made his UFC debut, defeating Sergey Morozov via choke. This victory earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Umar later continued to impress fans and experts, winning over Brian Kelleher, Nate Maness, Raoni Barcelos, and others. In the fight with Barcelos, he won by knockout in the first round, again earning a Performance of the Night bonus. In August 2024, Umar faced Cory Sandhagen at UFC on ABC 7. This fight was a title eliminator, in which he won by unanimous decision.
In addition to mixed martial arts, Nurmagomedov actively participates in grappling tournaments. In 2015, he became the world champion in combat sambo in the category up to 62 kg. At the age of 19, Umar achieved significant success in combat sambo, becoming the world champion in the category up to 62 kg at the WCSF championship. The following year, he won the title of world champion in amateur mixed martial arts within the WMMAA in the lightest weight.
Latest news
Nurmagomedov said on air that he is in no way inferior to the next Dvalishvili.
I want to have a good fight and beat him in all aspects. I don’t want to make anyone from my team or relatives nervous, I want to dominate and make a good fight. For every fight in my career, I’ve been preparing as if I were fighting for the belt. There are no psychological difficulties or anything that would require any support, I’m ready.
I don't think that Merab is better in any aspect and that his skills are better than mine. He is not superior to me in anything: not in the stand-up, not in wrestling, not in grappling. Today we need to beat Merab, but what about the other guys who are learning and becoming good fighters? They have the same dream as me, so we can't relax, - Match TV quotes Nurmagomedov as saying.
Interesting trends for betting
Nurmagomedov takedown success rate is 50 percent.
Nurmagomedov strike accuracy is 63 percent.
Accented strikes - 67 percent to the head.
Trends
Bet Nurmagomedov wins by submission
Umar win rate via submission/choke is 39 percent
4.70Tip and bets
Bookmakers experts consider Nurmagomedov to be the clear favorite of the upcoming fight. In their opinion, Dvalishvili will not have many chances of success. Both fighters have approximately the same physical parameters. However, a slight advantage in height may be an advantage for Dvalishvili. After all, the Georgian is stockier than his Dagestani opponent, and visually seems stronger. But Merab main advantage is his legendary endurance. This strength will certainly play a key role in their fights on the ground, which will probably decide the outcome of the fight.
Umar tactics on the ground are built around keeping his opponents on their backs every second of the fight. He also better at transitioning to submissions when the opportunity arises, something Dvalishvili almost never does. He [Dvalishvili] has a champion heart... Merab is a better freestyle wrestler, and his pressure is stronger. But if you look at how Umar mixes styles, how he works in MMA, he is now one of the best in the world. This will be a high-level fight, - Khabib said, speaking about this fight. It is worth agreeing with him. This is why Umar will defeat Merab thanks to his excellent striking technique and world-class play on the ground.
Our prediction is an early victory for Nurmagomedov 3.15
Upcoming matches
Read more
Tips from experts
Today tips
Betting predictions stat
