Real Madrid — Atletico Madrid: forecast and bets with odds of 4.95
Real Madrid will play a matchday 23 on February 8 at their home arena against Atletico. In the first round, the head-to-head match ended in a draw. How well have your opponents prepared for this game? Our experts have assessed the odds and prepared the most optimal bets for the game. Our star expert Alexander Mostovoy shared his opinion about the upcoming duel

Command Analysis

Real Madrid

Current form
The stakes for Real Madrid are higher than ever in the upcoming 238th Madrid derby. Los Blancos continue to hold the lead in La Liga, one point ahead of Atletico, and are looking to bounce back from a surprise 0-1 defeat by Espanyol in the last round. That match was a disappointment for Carlo Ancelotti's team, not only because of the result, but also because of the latest refereeing scandals. The club even took the rare step of filing an official complaint against the referees after the controversial episode with Carlos Romero, who escaped more severe punishment before becoming the author of the winning goal. An additional problem for Ancelotti remains personnel losses.
The coaching staff has to puzzle over the changes in defense — Antonio Rudiger's injury left the team with almost no central defenders. In addition, Real Madrid's midfield and attack have also suffered from the loss of key players, which may affect their overall game dynamics. Despite these difficulties, the Royal Club remains a formidable force at the Santiago Bernabeu. They have not lost at home in La Liga since April 2023 (with the exception of matches against Barcelona), and in face-to-face meetings with Atletico, they have not lost in the championship since February 2016.
Disqualifications and injuries
Real Madrid will not be able to count on several key players: David Alaba (knee injury), Eduardo Camavinga (muscle injury), Dani Carvajal (knee injury), Eder Militao (knee injury), Antonio Rudiger (muscle injury), Jude Bellingham (bruise) and Kylian Mbappe (shin injury).
Interesting betting trends
- Real Madrid have scored at least twice in their last three La Liga home games.
- Los Blancos have not lost at home in the championship since April 2023, with the exception of meetings with Barcelona.
- In the last four Madrid derbies in La Liga, fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored.
- Rodrigo remains a key figure in Real Madrid's attack, having scored two goals in the last three matches.
Provisional squad: Lunin – Vasquez, Valverde, Nacho, Fran Garcia – Tchuameni, Kroos, Ceballos – Rodrigo, Vinicius, Braim Diaz

Atletico Madrid

Current form
After a solid start to February, when Atletico first beat Mallorca (2-0) in La Liga, and then defeated Getafe (5-0) in the Spanish Cup, the Mattresses are approaching the Madrid derby in a great mood. Diego Simeone's team will try to take revenge for the defeat in the Spanish Super Cup, as well as consolidate their status as one of the contenders for the championship. The victory over Mallorca was symbolic for Simeone — the Argentine specialist celebrated his 500th La Liga match at the head of the Rohiblancos.
However, the upcoming derby will require full concentration from his team, especially after a misfire in the last away league match against Leganes (0:1). This defeat was the second in the last five away meetings of the championship — before that, Atletico had lost only twice in 15 away matches. Historically, the Bernabeu remains a difficult stadium for the Mattresses — they have not won there in La Liga since 2016. Nevertheless, the current shape of the team, as well as the instability of Real Madrid's defensive lines, give them hope for a positive result.
Disqualifications and injuries
In the upcoming derby, Atletico will not be able to count on Robin Le Norman (too many yellow cards).
Interesting betting trends
- Antoine Griezmann remains Atletico's main attacking force, having scored in four of the last five matches.
- The Mattresses have not lost in four of the last five Madrid derbies in all competitions.
- In six of Atletico's last seven La Liga matches, more than 2.5 goals have been scored.
- Juliano Simeone has scored a goal and an assist in the last two meetings, underscoring his growing role in attack.
Provisional squad: Oblak – Molina, Jimenez, Witsel, Aspilicueta - De Paul, Koke, Barrios, Saul – Griezmann, Morata.
Trends
The bet is an accurate score of 3:1
The last face-to-face match ended with this score
4.60Atlético'sbetwon't score in the first half
In two of the last three face-to-face matches, such a bet took place.
1.35Bet Real Madrid will score in the second half
In two of the last three matches, the bet went up
1.30Tip and bets
An intense fight is expected in the upcoming Madrid derby, but at the same time the match has every chance of becoming effective. Both clubs have strong attacking potential, and the defensive lines of the teams have recently shown vulnerability. Real Madrid has consistently scored at home — in the last five matches at the Bernabeu in La Liga, los blancos have not gone without goals, and in three cases they have hit the opponent's goal at least twice. However, personnel problems in the defense, including injuries to Militao, Alaba and Rudiger, may lead to the fact that Atletico will also find chances at other people's gates.
The Mattresses, in turn, demonstrate attacking aggression — in six of the last seven La Liga matches with their participation, more than 2.5 goals were scored. Griezmann is in good shape, and the Rohiblancos midfield is capable of creating dangerous moments even against organized defenses. Historically, Madrid derbies are not always productive, but in the last four meetings in all tournaments, a total of more than 2.5 has been achieved twice. Taking into account the attacking style of both teams and Real Madrid's defensive problems, we expect an eventful match with goals.
Our forecast is a total of more than 2.5 goals. We bet on it with a coefficient of 1.90
Betting on the outcome
The Madrid derby between Real Madrid and Atletico promises to be intense, but at the same time, one of the teams has every chance to achieve victory with a tangible advantage. Real Madrid continues to show strength at the Santiago Bernabeu, where their attacking line regularly finds its way to the opponents' goal. Despite the personnel problems in defense, Carlo Ancelotti's team has sufficient resources to compensate for them by dominating the attack.
On the other hand, Atletico also has a high-quality offense, and Diego Simeone's experience in tactical adjustments can help the mattress players take advantage of their opponent's weaknesses. Historically, Madrid derbies are often fought hard, but in five of the last seven face-to-face meetings in La Liga, one of the teams has won by a two-goal margin. Taking into account the attacking potential of both teams and possible defensive mistakes, there is a high probability that one of the sides will achieve victory with a two-goal difference.
The forecast is a victory for one of the teams with a two—goal difference for a coefficient of 4.95
Betting on statistics
The Bernabeu derby promises to be full of fouls. Both clubs practice an aggressive style of play, and the intensity of the meeting will inevitably lead to a lot of single combats and tough fighting in the center of the field. Atletico traditionally uses pressure and tough selection, while Real Madrid, trying to dominate, also does not shy away from tactical fouls in order to disrupt the opponent's counterattacks. In the last three face-to-face meetings of these teams, at least 26 fouls were recorded, which confirms their tough style of play. The referee, knowing the history of the confrontation, probably will not forgive excessive rudeness, which will lead to a high number of stops.
Forecast — total fouls over 26.5 for a coefficient of 1.92